Tuesday, July 22, 2014

More on Halbig [UPDATED]

Continued from this morning.

Meanwhile, the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals just ruled that the subsidies do, in fact, apply across all the Exchanges, putting it in direct conflict with Halbig.

One would think that this would mean a certain trip to the Supremes, but maybe not:

"One thing the Supreme Court takes into consideration when deciding to take cases is whether or not there's a split in how various circuits are treating an issue. Right now there's a split but if they go en banc at the DC circuit and the heavily Democratic full court overturns the panel's decision that eliminates the split and could give SCOTUS an out on taking this issue on."

Unfortunately, that sounds about right to me.

So, good news this morning, (likely) reality this afternoon.

UPDATE FROM BOB: I don't see this as big either way. If the subsidies go, no big deal.

Using admin numbers:

■ 8.5M applied, 85% got subsidies
That's about 7M
1.2M failed to pay their initial premium. Another 2.5M have lapsed (or will lapse) due to non-payment by the end of the year.
Net about 4M that got subsidies and some of those got them legally through state exchanges.
If the subsidies are clawed back (certainly possible) that leaves 4M pissed off voters.
As a raw number that is not a game changer.
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