Monday, October 19, 2015

Unexpected! Dismal ACA enrollment ahead

It will come as no surprise to regular IB readers that the outlook for Open Enrollment v3.0 isn't bright. What may be a surprise is the magnitude of the train-wreck:

"[W]hen the law was passed, the Congressional Budget Office projected that enrollment would grow by 8 million in 2016, and reach a total of 21 million effectuated enrollees. In other words, Obamacare’s exchanges are on track to achieve less than half of the enrollment that was originally predicted."

Now one might do well to ask just how the rocket surgeons in DC could miss the mark by so much. The answer to that is revealing (and more than a bit disturbing): According to HHS Secretary Burntwell, "our target assumes something that is pretty challenging, which is that more than one out of every four of the eligible uninsured will select plans.”

That is, despite all the hype, all the hoopla, and the billions of subsidy dollars being doled out, the folks at CMS still can't entice even a quarter of uninsureds to sign up. And why is that? Perhaps it's the fact that, despite Washington's assumptions, Americans aren't that terrible at math, and can see the value in paying (perhaps) the fine penalty tax, vice thousands - or even tens of thousand - of dollars in total out-of-pocket.

But hey, Ms Sylvia, by all means go with "challenging."
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