I think not much. Why not?
Obama may not
want to bring up this law because, despite the Supreme Court decision, it remains widely unpopular.
Romney may not
want to bring it up either. That’s
because the Obama campaign would very likely not respond on the issue, but instead would respond by
claiming "Romneycare" in Massachusetts was the
model for Obamacare. That’s false;
Romney’s actual proposal was less intrusive and less expensive than the law that was ultimately enacted in Massachusetts. But, nevertheless:
(1) the explanation is complicated,
and would not sway many votes.
That’s because most voters would ignore it just because it’s complex.
(2) Worse, it would be a diversion,
taking limited debate time away from focusing on Obama’s main governing
failures – his wretched economy and his wretched foreign policy.
For these reasons, neither candidate may see much use in bringing up
Obamacare; in fact both candidates may see potential harm in doing so. That’s why I think
Obamacare will not figure importantly in the debates.
The Romney
proposal included an employer mandate that required only catastrophic coverage,
not the comprehensive and expensive "Cadillac plan" coverage that was
ultimately included in the Massachusetts law, and in ObamaCare.
So, clearly, the Obama plan did not follow
the Romney “model” in this feature – a feature important enough that it was disputed all
the way to the Supreme Court. There's more:
Romney's
successor, Governor Deval Patrick, greatly increased the mandated level of
coverage while implementing the law
Deval's tinkering resulted in much higher
costs not contemplated in the original law, and those costs still adversely
affect the state’s finances. Yet the whole thing is tagged as
“Romneycare”. Go figure.
A further insight, which both
the linked articles report: On the
day that Romneycare was signed into law, Romney line-item-vetoed eight elements
changed in or added into the final draft of the bill . . . After the
signing ceremony, though, the Democrat legislature returned to the State House
and overrode all eight vetoes. (in fact, during 2006 alone, Romney's last year as Governor, Romney issued 250 vetoes, every single one of which was overridden.)
. . . see how easily an Obamacare discussion leads away from the economy and foreign policy? My bet - Romney won't go there - and neither will Obama.